Congressional Budget Office Publishes New Health Insurance Coverage Projections  

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released updated projections of health insurance coverage through 2033 for people younger than age 65 over. The share of Americans younger than age 65 who are uninsured is currently at a historic low of 8.3 percent. CBO attributes this to temporary policies instituted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, including continuous coverage provisions in state Medicaid programs and enhanced premium subsidies in the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) individual marketplace.

Over the next year and a half, CBO expects substantial declines in enrollment in Medicaid, as the continuous eligibility provisions put in place during the pandemic unwind. CBO projects that 6.2 million of the people leaving Medicaid will become uninsured. Additionally, if the enhanced subsidies expire after 2025, as scheduled, 4.9 million fewer people are estimated to enroll in marketplace coverage, instead enrolling in unsubsidized nongroup or employment-based coverage or becoming uninsured. By 2033, the share of people who are uninsured is projected to be 10.1 percent.