Week of October 15, 2021

Models Predict Steady Decline in COVID-19 Cases Through March 2022

A new analysis prepared by researchers advising the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) finds that cases and deaths are likely to decline through the spring without a winter surge. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub combined nine different mathematical models from different research groups to get an outlook for the pandemic for the next six months.

Modelers developed four potential scenarios, taking into account whether or not childhood vaccinations take off and whether a more infectious new variant should emerge.

The most likely scenario is that children do get vaccinated and no super-spreading variant emerges. In that case, the combo model forecasts that new infections would slowly, but fairly continuously, drop from about 140,000 today now to about 9,000 a day by March. Deaths from COVID-19 would fall from about 1,500 a day now to fewer than 100 a day by March 2022.

Vaccine News

Vaccine Mandates by State: Who Is, Who Isn't, and How?

LeadingAge has started to track the vaccine mandate trends in each state. So far, there are 25 states that require vaccination for employees of various categories. Of those, twenty-one specify requirements for healthcare workers, and the majority of those states require vaccination or regular testing of unvaccinated employees.

Six states have taken a “vaccinate or terminate” approach, only permitting healthcare workers to be unvaccinated if they have a valid religion or medical exemption as defined for by the EEOC. Nine states have passed laws that ban employers from mandating vaccines for workers; three more states are expected to enact such bans in the near future.


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